As far as the race for the presidency goes, Senator Obama is taking a clear lead in the polls. In a recent poll taken from October 14th-16th with a sample of 2314 by Gallup Tracking (Expanded), Obama has a 6 point lead with his 51 to McCain’s 45. CBS News/NY Times’ most recent poll however gives Obama a lead of 14 points with Obama at 53 and McCain at 39 (conducted on October 10th-13th with a sample of only 699). I’d say that even if the polls are slightly “off,” Obama still has this election in the bag.
Democrats are also taking a viscous lead in the election for the VA Senate Seat, according to the majority of polls. SurveyUSA places Warner (D) a massive 30 points ahead his competitor Gilmore (R) (conducted of October 4th-5th with a sample of 666). A more recent poll, PPP (D), calls the race a fraction tighter with Warner at 58 and Gilmore at 31 resulting in only a 27 point lead (conducted on October 6th-7th with a sample of 917)
Polls today are more accurate for the general population with larger samples and much easier to conduct. In modern US elections, polls seem to give leads to the popular candidates and not always the worthy candidates that voters are actually supporting. Polls are relatively accurate in gauging public opinion. Although the Bradely Effect might be playing a role in this election (the phenomena where voters say they will vote for a minority candidate in polls but actually vote for the white candidate) Obama is so far ahead of McCain in the polls that I find it unlikely that such a large number of voters would be lying.
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hi casey!
I also found in an Ipsos/McClatchy poll (taken a couple days after the last presidential debate) that Obama is leading with 48% whereas McCain received 39%. The margin of error was about 3.3%, so Obama seems like he's in good shape, according to the poll. Then, however, you have all the swing states like North Carolina and Ohio in addition to all the voters that are still undecided which will shift around some percentage points.
Polls are accurate in measuring public opinion, generally taken over telephones; but there is the rising use of cell phones, which can eliminate certain opinions right there. It's important that the wording of the questionnaire also must be completely unbiased in order to have a solid confidence level, or sample error, in addition to the sample of (at least) 1,500 people.
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